DAWN Editorials - 4th february2025

[faheemustad]

Balochistan turmoil

THE unacceptable loss of at least 22 security men in two separate attacks between Friday and Saturday — in Balochistan and KP — underscore the need to address the problem of terrorism in both provinces with alacrity.

In the first incident, at least 18 paramilitary troops were martyred as they were reportedly ambushed by terrorists in Kalat. In the second episode, four Levies personnel from Balochistan were martyred in KP’s Dera Ismail Khan, near the border of both provinces.

The Kalat atrocity has been claimed by the separatist BLA, and while no group has accepted responsibility for the D.I. Khan attack, the area is known to have a TTP presence. These abhorrent attacks illustrate the fact that the biggest terrorist threat Pakistan faces comes from two major actors: religiously inspired militants, and separatist forces.

Though there is no evidence to suggest that the BLA and TTP coordinated these attacks, some experts have said that the latter may be courting the former to jointly fight the state.

After KP, Balochistan is most affected by militancy. As per one think tank, there were at least 24 terrorist attacks in the province last month, resulting in the loss of 11 security men and six civilians.

The sophistication and frequency of attacks indicate that separatist forces may be getting help from external hostile actors. Undoubtedly, the state’s first priority should be to secure all of Balochistan, and ensure that its people are able to live in peace.

While security operations need to be carried out to ensure terrorist groups cannot operate freely, efforts are also required on the diplomatic front to confront inimical states, and warn them against stoking fires within the country. Moreover, funding and arms transfers to the separatists must be traced and blocked.

Yet, while the state cannot compromise on Balochistan’s security, a distinction needs to be made between the province’s political forces, and separatist militants. Conflating the two is unhelpful, and state action against political activists may actually propel the latter towards militancy.

Poverty, underdevelopment and the issue of enforced disappearances are hard realities in Balochistan.


Therefore, those elements that raise these issues in a democratic fashion should not be demonised by the state. Lately, we have seen terrorism cases filed against Baloch rights activists. Indeed, in the heat of the moment, some activists may use questionable language during rallies and protests, but this cannot be equated with terrorism.

While the state should confront and neutralise actual terrorists murdering security personnel and innocent civilians, an accommodative approach is required where Baloch activists and political forces are concerned.

Though trust between the estranged Baloch population and the state cannot be built overnight, the government’s most potent counterterrorism weapon can be ensuring Balochistan’s full constitutional rights.

Published in Dawn, February 4th, 2025


Skewed priorities

OVER the past few years, the people of Pakistan have paid immensely for their state’s failure to expend national resources in sensible, sustainable ways. The pressure that foreign lenders have been exerting on Pakistan to force it to live within its means is one of the consequences of the country’s history of bad policies. Stricter oversight from the IMF has worked in some ways, but it has also resulted in several anti-people outcomes. Since our federal policymakers have a limited appetite for broadening the tax base, they have taken to repeatedly appropriating funds earmarked for the people’s development and using them to meet the country’s financial needs. Seen from another perspective, re-appropriation of development spending has been used as a tactic by the ruling elite to force ordinary people to shoulder as much as possible of the burden of years of their own bad policies. Considering how hard ordinary Pakistanis have been hit by higher taxation and runaway inflation, basic decency would demand that the government show at least some regret for repeatedly taking from their development funds. Instead, Islamabad has little remorse for its misdeeds.

Though tax collection for the ongoing fiscal year is now almost half a trillion rupees behind target, the size of politically managed development schemes is being doubled to Rs50bn for fiscal 2024-25, according to reports. While it will be argued that these funds will be spent on projects that ultimately benefit the public, there are three key issues that bear highlighting. Firstly, funds allocated to political schemes usually end up with lawmakers from ruling parties. This can mean that areas where the opposition is more popular may be deprived of the benefits of such schemes. Secondly, because these funds are spent at lawmakers’ discretion, there is a high chance of corruption and cronyism in the award of project contracts. Lastly, the argument for lawmaker-led schemes is that they know their areas better and understand local needs; however, the question remains whether, in practice, their priorities actually align with local development needs. What cannot be denied is that these schemes are meant to maximise political benefits for the ruling elite. Given the dire state of our finances, no amount of public funds should be used so arbitrarily, especially not for political purposes. The present mess is a result of such skewed priorities.

Published in Dawn, February 4th, 2025


Fertility puzzle

THE dramatic fall in global fertility rates — from 4.8 births per woman in 1970 to 2.2 in 2024 — represents one of history’s great demographic shifts. Yet some nations remain stuck in transition. Pakistan, South Asia’s second-most-populous country, exemplifies both progress and challenges in bringing birth rates to sustainable levels. The country’s fertility rate has tumbled from six births per woman in 1994 to 3.6 today, according to the UN’s latest World Fertility Report. But this masks stark disparities. Urban women average far fewer children than their rural counterparts. The adolescent birth rate, at 40 per 1,000 women aged 15-19, remains stubbornly high. At current trends, Pakistan will not reach replacement-level fertility of 2.1 children until 2079 — decades behind its neighbours. Bangladesh’s fertility rate has fallen to 2.14 and is projected to reach replacement level by 2026. India achieved replacement-level fertility in 2020.

This matters enormously for Pakistan’s development prospects. High fertility strains public services and household resources. Yet managed properly, a falling birth rate could yield a ‘demographic dividend’ of working-age adults unburdened by dependents, powering economic growth as it did in East Asia. Achieving this requires a more muscular approach from policymakers. Access to family planning remains patchy, particularly in rural areas. Many women lack the autonomy to make reproductive choices. Child marriage, though illegal, persists. Meanwhile, female labour force participation remains among the world’s lowest. The government should integrate family planning into primary healthcare while expanding girls’ education and women’s employment. Religious leaders could be enlisted to challenge cultural resistance to contraception. Better data collection would help target interventions. None of this is rocket science. Bangladesh shows what determined policy can achieve. But our lacklustre governance limits implementation, while conservative social attitudes run deep. Without sustained political will to complete the fertility transition, we risks squandering our demographic moment. The next decade could prove decisive.

Published in Dawn, February 4th, 2025