DAWN Editorials - 10th february2025

[faheemustad]

Justice for all

ALONG with his domestic agenda, Donald Trump is busy ripping to shreds the post-World War II ‘rules-based international order’ that his country helped forge. The latest salvo in the Trumpian campaign have been sanctions targeted at the International Criminal Court. Mr Trump has signed an executive order sanctioning individuals investigating the US or its allies, namely Israel, America’s most allied of allies. The move appears to have been prompted by the ICC investigation probing the Israeli prime minister for war crimes in Gaza. According to Mr Trump’s order, the ICC has “engaged in illegitimate and baseless actions” targeting the US and Israel. During his last stint in the White House, Mr Trump had also sanctioned the then ICC prosecutor and another official over investigations of possible US war crimes in Afghanistan. Neither the US nor Israel is a member of the court. However, a large chunk of the global community disagrees with Mr Trump’s assault on the ICC; 79 states have signed a joint statement defending the global court’s work — including staunch US allies such as France, Germany and the UK.

The message the latest move sends to the world is that of hyper American exceptionalism, that the US and its vassal Israel are beyond reproach, that powerful actors can literally get away with murder. Though the prevailing international system has largely been used by powerful states of the Global North to target foes who do not toe the line, while looking the other way as allies break the rules, there can be little disagreement with the ICC’s mandate: to punish those involved in crimes against humanity. And what Israel has committed against the Palestinians since October 2023 is an egregious crime against humanity. Instead of being dismantled, the system should be improved so that all states are subject to the same rules, and the rich and the strong are not able to evade justice. But expecting the current US administration to help create a more equal world is delusional. The current order is collapsing, and the Trump administration is hastening its demise. Hence, a new, fair global order is required, which focuses on justice — in all its forms — and equality, balanced with respect for sovereignty. The Global South should help build this new world, along with states that share universal values.

Published in Dawn, February 10th, 2025


Held back

IT is a crying shame how women are conspicuously absent from Pakistan’s civil services. Despite comprising half the population, they occupy just 5pc of federal government positions. This paltry representation persists despite a 10pc quota that supposedly guarantees their presence in bureaucracy. Numbers recently shared by the Pakistan Public Administration Research Centre tell a woeful tale. Of 1.2m federal employees, a mere 49,508 are women. More telling is their distribution: 78pc languish in lower-grade positions (BS 1-16), while a microscopic 0.12pc reach the rarefied air of BS-22. Even the Defence Division, which employs the largest share at 37.31pc of all female federal employees, has not achieved gender parity. The pattern extends across autonomous bodies and corporations, where women comprise just 5.41pc of the workforce.

Such statistics would be disappointing anywhere; in Pakistan, they are economically suicidal. Our persistent financial woes — a volatile rupee, chronic trade deficits, and an ongoing IMF programme — cannot be addressed while excluding half the talent pool. Nations that have embraced female participation in public service, from Rwanda to Sweden, demonstrate that diversity in bureaucracy correlates strongly with economic resilience and policy innovation. The notion that qualified women are scarce defies reality. Our universities regularly produce more female graduates than male in several disciplines. The real barriers are more prosaic: inadequate childcare, inflexible working hours, and the subtle yet persistent bias that views women as unsuitable for senior positions. A mere 6.09pc increase in female employment over the past year suggests the problem is far from solving itself. For a nation seeking economic revival, the solution is clear, if not simple: Pakistan must tackle the structural impediments that keep women from entering — and ascending in — public service. Without such reform, the bureaucracy will remain both unfair and inefficient. In governance, as in economics, no country can soar with one wing clipped.

Published in Dawn, February 10th, 2025


A positive note

PAKISTAN’S economy has ‘stabilised’. Yet it remains just a shock — a failed performance review of the IMF’s 37-month $7bn programme — away from a relapse.

This is the crux of a special note released by Fitch Ratings ahead of the first biannual programme review, expected to start soon. Not that Pakistan is likely to fail the upcoming review, but Fitch, like many others, is not too bullish on the government’s commitment to implementing the difficult reforms needed to address the imbalances in the economy.

While acknowledging the “progress in restoring economic stability and rebuilding external buffers”, the note cautions that “structural reforms would be key to the IMF programme reviews and continued financing from other … lenders”.

A weakened balance-of-payments position is at the core of our economic crisis. Even though liquidity has strengthened of late, thanks to a robust increase in remittances, curtailment of imports, and generous rollovers of bilateral debt by China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, foreign “reserves remain low relative to funding needs”.

Media reports suggest that the government has again reached out to Beijing for a two-year rescheduling of $3.4bn loans maturing between last October and September 2027 to cover the financing gap identified by the IMF.

There is no doubt that the economy has turned a corner as far as macro indicators are concerned: inflation is down to below 3pc, the current account is running a surplus, foreign payments — other than the loans rolled over — are being made on time, international reserves are growing, the exchange rate has stabilised, reduced interest rates are pushing private credit offtake, etc.

On the fiscal side, Pakistan has met at least three of five Fund benchmarks: it has achieved the targets for a primary budget surplus, net revenue collection and provincial cash surplus — though it has fallen short in FBR tax collection by nearly Rs470bn and failed to tax retailers.

These improvements, including provincial legislation to harmonise agriculture tax rates with the federal tax regime, means that the forthcoming review should not be negative. We may also see rating agencies upgrade our ranking, helping us access foreign bond markets and other sources of commercial loans as private flows remain elusive.

But the ‘turnaround’ has come at great cost to the salaried middle class. With the government unable to press the growth accelerator without upending the fragile recovery, the sufferings of low-middle-income households are unlikely to disappear soon. The only way the ruling elites can compensate them for their sacrifices is to put the country on the path of reforms and stick to it.

Published in Dawn, February 10th, 2025