DAWN Editorials - 11th January 2025

[faheemustad]

Afghan outreach

AS much mistrust marks Pakistan’s relations with the Afghan Taliban, Kabul’s rulers are reaching out to regional states in order to break out from their isolation and deepen economic ties.

While no one has formally recognised the Taliban regime, states are doing business with Kabul just short of recognition. In a significant development, the Taliban foreign minister met the Indian foreign secretary in Dubai recently, with the Afghan side describing India as a “significant regional and economic partner.”


Trade relations were apparently the key area of discussion. It should be remembered that India was a major player in Afghanistan before the 2021 Taliban takeover. According to media reports, New Delhi had pumped $3bn into Afghanistan for ‘reconstruction’ projects, and the erstwhile Northern Alliance members had warm relations with India. The Indians have reacted cautiously with the Taliban, but matters are proceeding nonetheless. The Taliban also maintain significant links with China and Russia.

These developments should concern Pakistan, and make its policymakers revisit their Afghan strategy. The stark fact is that while the Afghan Taliban may be difficult customers, Pakistan cannot afford a hostile neighbour to its west. Islamabad’s concerns about TTP bases in Afghanistan are valid, but it needs to perhaps change its strategy with the Taliban so that the message sinks in.

At a recent seminar in Islamabad, some experts were of the view that instead of communicating with the rulers in Kabul, Pakistan must raise the TTP issue with the Taliban leadership in Kandahar, from where the real power in Afghanistan flows.

Though Taliban supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada is a reclusive figure, if Pakistan were to successfully engage him or those close to him, and convince them to relocate the TTP and other anti-Pakistan terrorists away from the border, this might improve the security situation in the country with minimum costs. Such moves have been tried before — with limited success — when the Taliban leadership issued a fatwa in 2023 stopping its cadres from waging a ‘jihad’ inside Pakistan.


The Taliban are welcome to keep the TTP, as long as they pose no harm to Pakistan. The present strategy — limited talks with and kinetic action against Kabul — has failed to resolve the problem. As others are making diplomatic inroads with the Afghan Taliban, including unfriendly governments, Pakistan must reassess and readjust its strategy.

Islamabad should work with other regional states to stress that the Taliban must take stronger counterterrorism measures, so that militant groups cannot threaten Afghanistan’s neighbours. Yet it must also engage the Taliban high command in Kandahar, as well as the politicians in Kabul, so that the doors of negotiation are not closed. If relations sour further with Afghanistan, it will add to insecurity in this country, and give hostile states room to manoeuvre.

Published in Dawn, January 11th, 2025


Fragile recovery

STATE Bank Governor Jameel Ahmed appears to be quite optimistic over recent economic gains. That is not unusual; after all the nation has made a comeback from the edge of default. Speaking with business leaders in Karachi the other day, he said the policy measures (implemented by the bank) have set the stage for full restoration of economic activities in the country, adding that an uptick in remittances and a dip in inflation would lend (further) stability to the economy this year. There are signs that the country’s economy has stabilised after nearly three years of a full-blown crisis. Indeed, the role of the SBP in pulling off this stability cannot be overstated. Headline inflation is down to just 4.1pc and is expected to fall further to around 3pc this month, the rupee-dollar exchange rate remains stable, the haemorrhage of foreign exchange has been stemmed, the country’s international reserves have grown from $3bn to over $11bn despite debt payments, and the current account is running a surplus on soaring remittances and somewhat improved exports. The interest rates are coming down and private credit is said to be picking up pace. Today, the economic environment is a lot less volatile and uncertain than it was even a few months ago.

These are all positive developments and must be appreciated. That said, the recovery remains fragile and dependent on bilateral debt rollbacks and IMF crutches. The drying official and private capital inflows offer little reassurance about the future. The economy still remains trapped in a low-growth equilibrium despite improving macro indicators. Many believe that growth will remain elusive for some years, at least as the economy is yet to recover the kind of strength it needs to support faster expansion without hitting yet another, deeper crisis. The government is slow in implementing structural reforms and the price of this inaction is being borne by citizens and organised businesses. Rather, the ruling PML-N appears divided over reforms needed to put the economy on a sustained growth path and showing signs of impatience with the stabilisation policies due to political challenges from its rivals in Punjab. A lot of hope is attached to the promised investments from the Gulf nations, which the ruling party policymakers expect could offer them space to pursue faster growth. Until that happens, they can try selling ambitions like Uraan Pakistan.

Published in Dawn, January 11th, 2025


Destination Europe

THE country’s aviation authorities can rest a little easy. After a four-year banishment from European skies, Pakistan International Airlines flight PK-749 departed yesterday from Islamabad for Paris Charles-de-Gaulle Airport shortly after noon. There seemed to be quite a bit of interest in the event, with the flight among the top 10 being followed by aviation enthusiasts on FlightRadar24, a website that tracks airlines, for more than half an hour after its departure. It marked a welcome break from the serial crises that have chased the national airline for years, which suffered immense setbacks after the devastating crash of PK-8303 near Karachi airport in May 2020 led to revelations about inadequate pilot training and air safety measures. The repercussions were severe and included flight restrictions on PIA in many lucrative markets. Much effort has gone into reversing global perceptions about PIA since then, and it is encouraging to note that international regulators now seem more receptive when considering the airline’s safety profile.

The reopening of the European market to PIA will improve the airline’s viability, and it is hoped that the UK will be next to allow it to operate direct flights there again. The state has long wanted to rid itself of the burden of running a commercial airline but has found no serious takers, given PIA’s financial troubles and operational limitations. The fact that it has now demonstrated that it is ready for re-entry into more markets and compliant with stringent air safety requirements laid down by foreign regulators will sweeten the deal and aid privatisation efforts. Regardless of how the privatisation effort proceeds, however, the airline should keep its focus on reviving international operations, especially in the UK, which is a particularly important market considering the size of the expatriate population living there, as well as its social and economic linkages with Pakistan. The PIA management must not falter in this task.

Published in Dawn, January 11th, 2025