DAWN Editorials - 20th January 2025

[faheemustad]

At breaking point

PAKISTAN’S prisons have become a masterclass in how not to run a correctional system. With facilities bursting at 152pc of their capacity and three-quarters of inmates merely awaiting their day in court, the country’s jails serve as monuments to bureaucratic paralysis rather than justice.

A recent report, Pakistan’s Prison Landscape, tells a compelling story: 102,026 prisoners crammed into spaces designed for 65,811. Karachi Central Prison, operating at an eye-watering 355pc of capacity, resembles a sardine tin more than a correctional facility.

Most troubling is that 74,918 of these inmates are still awaiting trial, caught in the quicksand of a sluggish judicial system that makes Dickens’ Jarndyce v Jarndyce look expeditious.

Pakistan’s lawmakers have only worsened matters. The 2022 amendment to the Control of Narcotics Substances Act, which axed parole and probation options for drug offenders, has achieved precisely what any first-year criminology student could have predicted: a surge in incarcerations.

In Punjab alone, drug-related imprisonments account for nearly 30pc of the prison population.

Behind the prison walls, conditions would make a mediaeval jailer blush. Inmates navigate an obstacle course of unhygienic conditions, dirty water, meagre food, and exploitative labour practices. Family visits and legal consultations are treated as luxury items rather than basic rights.

The solutions are not rocket science. Pakistan must first drag its pre-trial detention system into the 21st century. The practice of tossing people behind bars for minor offences does not make any sense.

A proper bail reform package, paired with readily available legal aid, could thin the crowds considerably. Alternative sentencing desperately needs a seat at the table. Community service programmes — absent from Pakistan’s penal menu — could offer a more sensible approach for minor offenders while giving overcrowded cells some breathing room.

The Pakistan Prison Rules of 1978 have aged about as well as telegram in the age of smartphones, and cry out for modernisation across all provinces.

With an incarceration rate of just 40 prisoners per 100,000 population — barely a third of the global median — Pakistan’s crisis becomes even more perplexing. This low rate, far from being a success story, masks a troubling reality: a justice system too overwhelmed to process cases effectively, with informal dispute resolution filling the vacuum. That such a modest caseload has still managed to overwhelm the prison system speaks volumes about its structural deficiencies.

The failure to address these issues suggests Pakistan’s commitment to justice is weak. An independent oversight mechanism through the National Commission for Human Rights, empowered to conduct surprise inspections and handle prisoner complaints, could shine some much-needed light on these dark corners.

While its prisoners have lost their freedom, a civilised society cannot justify stripping them of their fundamental dignity.

Published in Dawn, January 20th, 2025


Lower growth

THE IMF has slightly marked down its previous growth forecast for Pakistan’s economy from 3.2pc to 3pc for the current fiscal year, underscoring the fragility of the recent stability. Though it has not elaborated on the reasons for the downgrade, its concerns over the erosion of the economy’s capacity to support growth are unmistakable. This also shows that the economy is caught up in a low-growth equilibrium in the absence of any significant domestic or foreign stimulus. Almost every international agency expects growth prospects for Pakistan to remain subdued for the next few years. International developments too are adding to risks to growth, even though the forecast for the global economy remains unchanged at 3.3pc in the IMF’s latest six-monthly World Economic Outlook Update. For example, the ongoing slowdown in the eurozone, a major export market for Pakistani goods, is likely to keep our industrial output suppressed. Moreover, the threat by the incoming US president to impose additional tariffs on imports from China, the EU and the rest of the world, has further deepened uncertainty for the global economy, including Pakistan’s.

Economic stability without growth should be worrisome for the ruling PML-N, which has recently devised its five-year ‘homegrown’ economic development programme, Uraan, promising to boost growth to 6pc by the end of its term. But is it worried enough to undertake critical reforms to address the imbalances that always lead us back to the door of the IMF for bailouts and to end our growth drought? Not really. True, the signs of recent macroeconomic stability are encouraging. But that is not enough as any attempt to push the growth accelerator without first implementing structural economic changes will again propel us towards a balance-of-payments crisis. There is a reason why no private foreign investment is coming to Pakistan in spite of promises of billions of dollars from the wealthy Gulf nations. This basically underlines a lack of investor confidence in the country’s commitment to reform itself. Besides, the resurgence of militant violence in KP and Balochistan, and unresolved political divisions in the country are keeping investors away. Without heavy private investment in the economy, a growth rate greater than 3pc to 4pc will remain elusive. We are no longer in a position to pull off higher growth rates by encouraging imported consumption with borrowed money.

Published in Dawn, January 20th, 2025


Nutrition challenge

WHEN a country’s children go hungry, its future withers. In Pakistan, where over 40pc of children under five are stunted, nearly 18pc are wasted, and more than half suffer from anaemia, malnutrition threatens to undermine a generation. For a middle-income country with nuclear capabilities and significant agricultural output, such statistics are appalling. Yet amid this troubling landscape, there are glimmers of hope. Recent data from Sindh shows some progress. Infant mortality rates in the province now stand at 2.9pc, below the national average of 5.4pc. The province’s public hospitals are achieving mortality rates comparable to private institutions, demonstrating that public healthcare, when properly managed, can deliver satisfactory outcomes. This success stems from Sindh’s embrace of public-private partnerships in paediatric care. The establishment of emergency facilities across major cities and telemedicine services in 106 tehsils shows how strategic collaboration can expand healthcare access.

The disparity within territories is striking. Punjab, despite its greater resources, has established only two emergency rooms in Multan and Lahore. Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, and other regions have made minimal progress, while KP and Azad Kashmir still lack paediatric emergency facilities. Sindh’s progress highlights the urgent need for similar initiatives across Pakistan. To begin with, Pakistan must address the basic issue of food security, with 7.9m people facing acute food insecurity. The successful public-private partnership model needs replication beyond Sindh’s borders. Moreover, there must be greater focus on preventive care and nutrition education, particularly given that only 38pc of infants are exclusively breastfed in their first six months. Granted that the challenges are enormous — and include funding constraints and weak inter-sectoral coordination — but progress is possible with political will and smart partnerships. Pakistan’s economic future is in great peril. We can either invest in our children’s nutrition now or pay a far heavier price in lost potential and productivity. The clock is ticking.

Published in Dawn, January 20th, 2025